I didn’t intend to talk bad about the Reds…
Not everyone who roots for the Cardinals also roots for the Blues. But I would hope that those who don’t are at least sympathetic to rooting for the Blues from afar because it would make a lot of their online friends happy. I began this preview this way because the Cardinals had excellent timing for when to lay an egg. Most of the game happened at the same time as the Blues Game 4 win, so I didn’t even see Fedde get absolutely destroyed.
Most importantly though, my day wasn’t tied to the Cardinals’ success. It shouldn’t ever be, because it’s just sports, but sometimes I got nothing going on that night – or I have tickets and actually go to the game – and losing ruins my day. Or at least, makes it worse. And I especially want to thank the Cardinals because they did it after they had already won the series. I don’t know how you guys grew up, but I was taught that what matters is to win series – sweeps were just a happy rare occurrence. So not getting a sweep does not bother me.
Moving on to the Reds, who are 15-13 with a +41 run differential. This makes it sound like they are a better team than they probably are. We’ll start with the obvious. They scored nine runs off position players in one Orioles game alone. Yeah they beat the Orioles 24-2 and nine of their runs were off Gary Sanchez and Jorge Mateo. Not quite the same, but they also scored 8 runs off Gerson Garabito in 14-3 win where he was allowed to throw 46 pitches. That player gave up 4 runs in his next appearance and has made two starts in AAA since then: he has allowed 9 runs in 5.1 IP in AAA.
My only point is that the +41 is indicating a level of dominance that I don’t really think is there. They have two other “blowout” wins – one by 5 runs, and yesterday’s game against the Rockies by 7 runs. Now, the Reds to their credit haven’t been blown out yet. Not one team they have faced has beaten them by at least 5 runs. That does matter.
Here’s more cold water on how good the Reds have been. Again to their credit, but they are 15-13 on the backs of beating bad teams. They swept the 4-23 Rockies and 11-18 Pirates. They also won their series against the 10-17 Orioles. They have split six games with the Giants, who have played like a great team. They have lost three-game series to the Rangers, Mariners, and Marlins. And hey the Cardinals might be a bad team – they certainly are by record – but it seems like +41 run differential would suggest they are on par with the Cubs and I don’t think they are.
Offense
You’d think, with a +41 run differential, that the Reds offense would be great. It is in fact exactly average by wRC+. These stats do not include yesterday’s game, but the Reds have scored 5.26 runs per game. By BaseRuns, which estimates the number of runs a team “should” have scored based on offensive statistics, the Reds “should” have scored 4.77 runs scored per game. That’s because, as a team, the Reds have the best wRC+ in baseball with runners in scoring position, with a 133 wRC+. When the bases are empty, they have a 78 wRC+.
I don’t know if coincidence is the right word, but there are three people in the Reds lineup who they acquired since last season. All of them are absolutely destroying the ball. Austin Hays through his first 12 games as a Red has a 221 wRC+ with 5 homers. Gavin Lux, acquired from the Dodgers, has a 141 wRC+ with a .467 BABIP. Jose Trevino, acquired from the Yankees, has a 132 wRC+ on the season. Their planned starting catcher, Tyler Stephenson, hasn’t played yet this year to an injury, though he has played in six rehab games in AAA and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him in this series.
Of the returning starters, Elly de la Cruz is doing okay with a 106 wRC+ so far. Leadoff hitter TJ Friedl has an OBP-oriented 104 wRC+. Jake Fraley has a 79 wRC+. Spencer Steer has a 57 wRC+ (I am forever going to bring this up – after a 1.9 fWAR season where he couldn’t play defense anywhere, Fangraphs named him one of the 50 most valuable trade pieces in their annual series. I will forever call that out as extremely dumb).
Former top 100 prospect and suspended for PEDs Noevli Marte has found the magic touch, hitting for a 187 wRC+ in his first 12 games. Matt McClain, finally healthy, has not found his previous touch, hitting for a 73 wRC+.
One of the weirder early season offenses I think I’ve ever seen. Even this early in the season, the guys driving the offense have about half the plate appearances a full-time starter would have (Marte has less than 50, Hays has 54, and Trevino has just 65) or a guy who is honestly not doing anything differently, but has a .467 BABIP (Lux). Throw in the weird disparity between bases empty and RISP, that they got nine runs off a position player, and I have no actual clue how good this offense actually is.
Pitching
Okay their offense is outperforming how good they really are for a couple of reasons, surely the pitching is a strength. Eh. Taking into account the park that they play in, the starting pitching of the Reds has 2.5 fWAR on the year, which places 10th in baseball. (Cardinals are 12th with 2.4 fWAR. Yesterday’s game may have increased the disparity)
The relief pitching has been very bad, but not gotten bad results. They have 0.0 fWAR on the year. The relievers have a 4.90 FIP and 4.72 xFIP, both of which are better than only the Miami Marlins. Somehow, the bullpen has a 3.55 ERA though. I wasn’t intending to go into this trashing the Reds, but they have had an incredibly fortunate April. They only get hits when runners get into scoring position, and their relievers have somehow not allowed runs despite not pitching well.
Their closer, Emilio Pagan, has been… okay. He has a 2.70 ERA, but a 4.31 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. He has blown one save. Garden variety closer here. I don’t know what happened to Alexis Diaz, but he has been terrible. He has more walks than strikeouts, just 25% of balls hit against him are on the ground, and he is very fortunate to have a 5.40 ERA. Tony Santillan hasn’t missed many bats en route to his 1.93 ERA. His 4.32 FIP and 4.37 xFIP are much less impressive. Graham Ashcraft has been solid, but not anywhere close to 0.77 ERA good.
Just keep going through the list. Taylor Rogers, 2.00 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.58 xFIP. Brent Suter, 1.69 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 4.15 xFIP. Their whole bullpen is not actually pitching that good, but has great ERAs. This is crazy. Oh sorry Scott Barlow has been below average by advanced stats and has a 4.09 ERA, so he’s almost the only guy in the bullpen not getting lucky results. It would bring me so much joy if the bullpen decided to come to earth against the Cardinals.
Monday – 5:40 PM
Andre Pallante (4.05 ERA/5.40 FIP/3.75 xFIP) vs. Nick Martinez (5.40 ERA/4.27 FIP/4.27 xFIP)
It’s kind of hard to know how good of a starting pitcher Nick Martinez actually is, because since he came over from the NPB, he has spent every year mostly in the bullpen. He has thrown over 100 innings the past three seasons and did make 16 starts last year, but he made 26 appearances in relief last year and a lot more in the previous two years. While his ERA is unlucky, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s more of a 4.20ish ERA guy than what he’s done the past three years.
Pallante will at some point I imagine not have every flyball he allows leave the park. I’m only slightly exaggerting. He has allowed five home runs on the year. He has allowed 15 total flyballs. With that said, I’m not sure Great American Ballpark is the place where you hope to lower your HR/FB%. Maybe when he’s back in St. Louis against the Mets.
Tuesday – 5:40 PM
Miles Mikolas (5.70 ERA/3.08 FIP/5.04 xFIP) vs. Brady Singer (3.62 ERA/3.11 FIP/3.23 xFIP)
Are you really a Cardinals fan if you don’t have nightmares of 2025 Mikolas pitching in GABP? Also, a bit of a rant, but I see people complaining that Mikolas has 0.6 fWAR on the year and how that’s a failure of WAR. Not really. The current version of Mikolas who literally never allows home runs probably is closer to a 3.08 ERA pitcher than his 5.70 ERA. But he’s not going to allow zero home runs. As soon as he starts allowing home runs, his FIP and thus his WAR will go way down. He has a career 11.5 HR/FB%. It’ll happen. Unless he improves from what he’s done (K/BB wise specifically cause the homers will come), 0.6 fWAR is maybe going to be the highest his WAR will be all year.
We’ll see how it looks when the year is over, but right now, the Reds do look smart for trading Jonathan India for Brady Singer. He’s due to allow a few homers though. He has a 32.4 GB% on the year, by far a career low, and his HR/FB% is 10%. In his career, it’s 13.5%. He is also striking out more than he ever has with a 28.6 K%.
Wednesday – 5:40 PM
Steven Matz (1.80 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.92 xFIP) vs. Andrew Abbott (3.60 ERA/4.57 FIP/3.94 xFIP)
Apparently, you only remember the most recent start that a pitcher has against you, because I was under the impression that Abbott dominated the Cardinals and that is not the case. He did in his most recent start, going 6 with only an earned run. But he has allowed six earned runs on two separate occasions against the Cards and he somehow walked six and struck out two in a 5 IP effort with just 2 ER. So Cards have had his number more than he’s had theirs.
Matz hasn’t really missed bats this year, with the somewhat odd exception of his only start on the year, when he struck out 5 of his 17 batters faced. He has made up for it by not walking hitters. But hopefully he returns to the staff with the same level of swing and miss against the Reds.
Matthew Liberatore (3.19 ERA/1.84 FIP/2.69 xFIP) vs. Hunter Greene (2.70 ERA/3.47 FIP/3.34 xFIP)
Kind funny to be here, five starts into the season, and not be bummed that the Cardinals six-starter plan is pushing Sonny Gray from facing off against Hunter Greene. That’s because Liberatore has arguably outpitched Sonny Gray. How sustainable it is, I don’t know. But against the Reds ace, the Cardinals are throwing who has been their ace of the season so far.
Greene has added a terrifying element to his game, something that Liberatore has also added to his: he stopped walking guys. He has always missed bats, but in his first three seasons, he walked at least 9% of hitters in every season. This year, it’s just 4.2%. But he hasn’t faced off against Lars Nootbaar yet, so maybe do something about that low walk rate.