Will Spring Training offer any clarity? (Probably not!)
I want to start by saying that I don’t know how much stock we should place in Spring Training performances. I’m also unsure how much weight the St. Louis Cardinals decision-makers give these performances when making roster decisions. We’ve heard talk of Spring Training position battles before, only to see the team proceed with their initial plans—despite the Spring performances of competing players. To be clear, I’m not saying this is a bad thing. Making decisions solely based on a handful of at-bats from thirty games in March wouldn’t fully utilize all the available information. It’s wise to consider the entire history of each player. That said, it’s always a little amusing when something is hyped up as a decisive Spring Training competition, only for the player who clearly performed better to not win the spot.
With that disclaimer out of the way, there seem to be three key areas where Spring Training position battles might be underway. Let’s take a quick look at them before this afternoon’s game.
Catcher
I’m starting with this one because it’s the most straightforward. With Willson Contreras transitioning to first base, the door at catcher is open for both Pedro Pagés and Iván Herrera. Each of these players’ skills can be boiled down to one major strength:
- Pagés: Defense
- Herrera: Offense
That’s overly simplistic, but it serves our purpose for now. In truth, this situation is perfect for a platoon. We discussed this with Katie Woo on the Viva El Birdos podcast: there’s playing time available for both catchers. The days of Yadier Molina starting over 150 games behind the plate are long gone—or, more accurately, they were a rarity to begin with. Molina was an extraordinary athlete who took immense pride in playing every day. These days, the physical toll of catching is something no team expects one player to endure alone.
Ultimately, it seems likely that Pagés and Herrera will split time at catcher fairly evenly. Pagés, with his pitch-framing and game-calling abilities, was the go-to catcher after Contreras was injured early in 2024. If Herrera can take a step forward on defense and game management while maintaining his offensive production, he might gain a slight edge and make a case for increased playing time. However, opportunities exist for both players.
Nolan Gorman versus the Outfielders
The Cardinals have a few outfield options, which to me makes this one of the most interesting decisions the team must make. Brendan Donovan seems to have secured a starting spot, either in the outfield or at second base. This leaves three starting spots to be divided among Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Michael Siani, and Victor Scott II. Breaking it down further, Walker seems locked in for right field, with Nootbaar also likely claiming an outfield spot. This narrows the battle to Gorman, Siani, and Scott.
So far in Spring Training, Gorman has struggled. He’s hitless in his first 10 plate appearances, with three strikeouts. Scott, on the other hand, has a home run and three additional hits in 9 plate appearances, while Siani is 1-for-10. Of course, this is all relatively meaningless data given the sample size. Looking back to last year, Siani—despite a 64 wRC+—was the most valuable of the three in terms of fWAR, thanks to his outstanding defense. In over 877 outfield innings, Siani recorded 9 defensive runs saved, placing him among the top 20 outfielders in 2024 (qualified or not) in that category. According to UZR/150—a stat that requires more innings to stabilize but I think can still provide us some insight—Siani ranked second among outfielders with over 500 innings at 15.4. While Scott is also known for his defensive skills, his track record is less extensive.
Gorman’s value, however, is tied directly to his bat. Over the past three seasons, his power has flashed potential, but he has yet to truly break out. With a career strikeout rate of 34.1% and less than stellar defense at second base, Gorman faces challenges. Had the Cardinals traded Nolan Arenado, Gorman could have shifted to third base, where his glove would be less exposed, and he might have benefited from regular playing time to hone his hitting. However, with Arenado remaining at third, Gorman’s chances for everyday starts are limited to second base. With utility Gold Glove winner Donovan also needing at-bats and being a stronger option defensively, Gorman might find himself as the odd man out.
That said, much like with catcher, there are innings and at-bats available for all these players. Both Siani and Scott bring value as pinch runners and late-inning defensive replacements. Siani’s glove could even allow him to play as an everyday centerfielder, despite his offensive struggles. Nootbaar, the team’s best all-around outfielder, has an admirable but potentially high-risk playing style that leaves him prone to injuries. Meanwhile, Gorman has the power to change the course of a game with one swing. Depending on circumstances and matchups, this competition might ultimately benefit everyone involved—and the Cardinals as a whole. Everyone wins and hopefully so do the Cardinals.
It’s just a little more fun to add a little drama to Spring Training games.
Happy Sunday!