Also a chance to vote on the 19th best prospect
During the offseason, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus surprised me with their high rankings of two well-performing DSL prospects in the Cardinals system. BA put Yairo Padilla 5th and was actually tempted to put him 3rd, while BP put Padilla and Rodriguez 9th and 10th. So as weird as it is to put two DSL prospects in the top 20, apparently Cardinals fans are the ones lower on them than national outlets. Raniel Rodriguez won the vote last time, so it’s time to update the top 20.
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
- Matt Koperniak, OF
- Yairo Padilla, SS
- Darlin Saladin, RHP
- Zack Showalter, RHP
- Raniel Rodriguez, C
New addition
As I explain last post, there’s no need to continue running comparable player polls. I have just two more additions, so I don’t need more information on who to add. The first addition won the “losers” of the position player poll. I took a few position player prospects who lost their head-to-head to someone who ended up on the voting list, and the winner of that poll is who is getting added this time. The winner ended up being yet another catcher, Sammy Hernandez. That makes three catchers in the top 20, and four catchers in at least the top 30. (And fifth catcher, who will not make this list, was on BP’s top 20 – Ryan Campos)
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
Bedell has two things going for him as it pertains to me as a fan. The first is that he went to Mizzou. I went to Mizzou. Mizzou has sent a few good pitchers to the MLB (hello Max Scherzer) and I would very much like to witness one as a Cardinal already. Even as a reliever. The second reason is that he is from the 2020 draft, and even though some of the players haven’t gone as well as expected, I am still invested in that draft being amazing.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
A philosophical question perhaps, because Cho is getting less love than I expected as I added him fairly early. Is this is a deal where you think the collective you overrated Cho in the past or are you really letting one year impact the voting that much, cause in my opinion, if it’s the former, valid. If it’s the latter, not so much. I mean he’s still just 21 in High-A with the same tools that made you vote him 11th last year!
Luis Gastelum, RHP – 23
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 30 G, 48 IP, 34.5 K%, 5.4 BB%, 41.9 GB%, .359 BABIP, 2.81 ERA/2.47 FIP/2.12 xFIP
BP: He’s a 23-year-old relief prospect who “broke out” last season in Low A, so naturally BP hasn’t written a word about him.
As a group that has not really voted relievers in the my Hall of Fame project and puts relievers low on the list in the top 20, what is the ceiling of a true relief prospect on a top 20? Like say Gastelum repeats his 2024, split between High A and AA and maybe he even glances AAA. How high could he possibly rank in that situation?
Michael Helman, 28 – IF/OF
LYR: Not in system
Stats (AAA): 72 G, 314 PAs, .271/.350/.487, 9.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, .217 ISO, .323 BABIP, 116 wRC+
BP: Much the same as Koperniak, I don’t know that BP has ever written a word about Helman.
If you can’t tell, this is the round of voting where I just give up talking about the prospects as players and just present a view of them. Do you think I should have an age limit when I do these lists? I unofficially do. I never put Wilking Rodriguez in the voting because he was 31. 30 would seem to be my limit. I will not put a 30-year-old on a top prospects list. Should we establish an age limit in the future?
Ixan Henderson, 23 – LHP
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 16 (11 GS), 73 IP, 26.3 K%, 9 BB%, 47.2 GB%, .261 BABIP, 2.10 ERA/3.02 FIP/3.57 xFIP;
High A: 6 GS, 31 IP, 19.5 K%, 10.5 BB%, 34.1 GB%, .341 BABIP, 2.90 ERA/4.57 FIP/4.80 xFIP
On the podcast with Brian Walton, Walton brought up Henderson, which is not specifically what I want to point out, but it was the fact that for the first time, I heard how this guy pronounces his name. It is pronounced “EE-Shawn.” I wanted to also use this space to introduce where the name came from, but I can’t find anything. MiLB dot com lists his name as Phillip Henderson on his little bio, though the main page stills lists Ixan. I want to get to the bottom of this.
Sammy Hernandez, 21 – C
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 350 PAs, .264/.372/.363, 10.9 BB%, 17.1 K%, .098 ISO, .323 BABIP, 118 wRC+
High A: 33 PAs, .130/.375/.391, 18.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, .261 ISO, .077 BABIP, 132 wRC+
Aren’t small sample sizes fun? What a wacky line at High A Hernandez had. Hernandez, if you don’t know, was the return for Genesis Cabrera, a volatile reliever who has already been non-tendered by the Blue Jays and signed to a minor league deal by the Mets. Fascinating that the Cardinals got a semi-actual prospect out of Cabrera (eventually) while the Jays apparently couldn’t find a taker despite decent ERA with them as a whole.
Brian Holiday, 22 – RHP
LYR: Not in system
Stats (College): 16 GS, 113 IP, 28.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, .089 WHIP, 2.95 ERA
BP: “Because he’s short—listed at 5-foot-11—and has visual effort in his motion, he’s going to carry a future reliever tag until he doesn’t, but if the Cardinals are truly improving on pitcher development, Holiday has the type of arsenal they should start to see more successful outcomes with.”
Conceptually, I feel like Holiday probably belongs on the top 20, but when I take the time to describe him as a prospect, I totally understand why he probably won’t be. He’s a low ceiling high floor pitching prospect who has not actually lodged a pro inning. I mean part of the appeal of these prospects is their reliability, but without an inning thrown, it doesn’t feel reliable yet.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
I’ve compared Honeyman to Tommy Pham in the past, and I the comparison was not about their styles of play. But because I’m running out of things to say, how many years would Tommy Pham have ranked on a top 20 prospect list had VEB run such a thing in the past? He was in the system beginning at 18, probably became a legit prospect at 22, and somehow took four years to reach the majors after that. If you weren’t around for that.
Jonathan Mejia, 2B/SS – 20
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Complex): 205 PAs, .299/.395/.425, 12.2 BB%, 25.4 K%, .126 ISO, .405 BABIP, 127 wRC+
BP: They have spoken about him, but it is extremely dated (from 2023) and things have changed too much to share.
If Mejia were more definitively a SS prospect, would he already be on this list? I’m not going to say there aren’t nitpicks to his offensive line, but he made the list out of the DSL, and had a good season at 19. We skipped a season, but he’s set to be in Low A at 20-years-old. That’s a good spot.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
I don’t think Rajcic has meaningfully changed as a prospect, I think his numbers in Low A set a standard that he wasn’t going to reach. He’s effectively the same pitcher in AA as he was in High A, which if you take run environment into account, there’s an argument he was better in AA than in High A. That’s a harder argument to make given the ERA and FIP differential, but the xFIP was .01 apart.